Pakistan: the world's most dangerous country

By David Blair, Diplomatic Correspondent

If the greatest threats to global security come from terrorism, nuclear weapons and the spread of failed states, Pakistan stands at the nexus of all three phenomena. The political fortunes of this vast country of 165 million people could scarcely be of greater importance.

Whoever emerges from the present political maelstrom to lead Pakistan will have to deal with the country's unofficial status as al-Qa'eda's heartland. The seven autonomous Tribal Areas lining the north-west frontier have been havens for al-Qa'eda's core leadership since the Taliban's downfall in Afghanistan in 2001.

From these strongholds, Islamist fighters have steadily penetrated the rest of Pakistan and revived the Taliban insurgency in southern Afghanistan. Armed militants have recently taken over enclaves of the once placid Swat Valley in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, only a few hours drive from the capital, Islamabad.

advertisementGen Pervez Musharraf has never succeeded in controlling all of Pakistan's national territory. Instead, the Pakistani state is so weak that armed Islamist groups, some linked to al-Qa'eda, have free rein over large areas.

Elsewhere, an ethnic insurgency is underway in the south-western province of Baluchistan, where local separatists are fighting for their own state. Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and the commercial capital, is run by a ruthless political machine linked to organised crime. Another major city, Peshawar, is a hotbed of Islamist zealotry.

A state which wields little control over its own cities is plainly in the throes of disintegration. Last year, "Foreign Policy" magazine gave Pakistan ninth place in a global league of "failed states".

Throw in the fact that Pakistan possesses between 40 and 60 nuclear warheads and all this becomes even more worrying. America has helped install a sophisticated command-and-control structure to secure Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.


The warheads are controlled by a highly sensitive body called the Strategic Planning Division led by Gen Khalid Kidwai. Because Gen Musharraf can trust so few people with this job, he kept Gen Kidwai in his post even when he officially retired earlier this year.

In 2004, Abdul Qadeer Khan, formerly the head of Pakistan's nuclear programme, was exposed as the mastermind of a global proliferation network. Mr Khan, who is now under house arrest, ran a "nuclear supermarket", supplying key components to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Pakistan is a failed state hosting both nuclear weapons and al-Qa'eda's core leadership. This unique combination makes it arguably the world's most dangerous country.

The Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/06/wpak306.xml