By Simon Tisdall
October 4 2007
The inertia and impotence of Iraq's central government is fuelling renewed talk of partition in the country.
After months of gruelling work, including major counter-insurgency operations in June, US commanders in Iraq have growing reason to believe their controversial "surge" policy is working.
But even as the military finally gets a grip, the effectiveness and cohesion of the civilian-led, Shia-dominated central government in Baghdad slips by the day, fuelling renewed talk of partition.
US officials say the number of Iraqi civilians and American soldiers killed in September was lower than at any time since January 2006. The overall death toll has been falling for four months.
Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, the US deputy commander, said this week that al-Qaida bases and safe havens have been reduced by 60-70% since the surge began.
Other contributory factors include increased cooperation from Sunni Arab tribesmen, not merely in al-Anbar province, long held up as a model, but across central Iraq.
Up to 30,000 Sunnis have reportedly volunteered to help US and Iraqi government forces secure their neighbourhoods against jihadist depredations.
After months of bitter US complaints that Iran's Revolutionary Guard is aiding Shia militias and arming renegade Sunnis linked to al-Qaida, Tehran may now be backing off.
Lt Gen Odierno said the supply of weapons from Iran had increased dramatically between April and July, in support of a summer offensive by insurgents against coalition forces.
But after a border security deal agreed with Tehran last month by Iraq's Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, the arms flow was slowing.
The reason could be Iranian alarm over escalating internecine clashes between rival Shia factions in the south. Whatever the cause, the top US commander, General David Petraeus, says he is ready to reciprocate if the Iranians stay nice.
Sadly for the overall US strategy, these security advances are not being matched by political progress.
Mr Maliki's coalition government looks weaker than ever, unable to command a working parliamentary majority and apparently incapable of passing an oil revenue-sharing law or other "benchmark" reconciliation measures. Seventeen ministries are without a minister and much central government funding remains frozen in the ruins of a collapsed bureaucracy.
Sensing divisions in the Shia camp and reduced commitment from the Kurds, Sunni Arab and secular opposition parties have begun to threaten a no confidence vote. And US congressional criticism is mounting.
"There was just no sense of urgency on the part of the prime minister to drive the overarching goal that will help cement and solidify Iraq as a united country," said Republican senator Olympia Snowe after a visit to Baghdad.
US officials, including President Bush personally, are leaning hard on Mr Maliki. Ironically, however, their success in thwarting Democratic party attempts to impose a troop withdrawal timetable, plus the surge's recent advances, may actually have eased the immediate pressure on him.
Another unpalatable reality is that if Mr Maliki falls, neither Washington nor Iraq's squabbling factions would easily find a viable alternative.
The impotence and inertia of the Baghdad government, coupled with growing willingness among tribal chiefs and provincial and municipal-level leaders to take charge of their own security, budgets and social programmes, is encouraging talk of partition - or at least a de facto devolution of power going beyond that envisaged in Iraq's federal constitution.
Independence-minded Kurdistan, in northern Iraq, is already going its own way, whatever Iraq's figurehead president, Jalal Talabani, may have told Mr Bush at their recent White House meeting.
To illustrate the point, the Kurdish regional government recently signed five unilateral oil exploration deals with foreign companies, including Hunt Oil of Texas, an erstwhile Bush campaign supporter, to fury in both Baghdad and Washington.
In the south, Mr Maliki's key Shia backer, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, wants the nine majority Shia southern provinces to join together in what could effectively become a state within a state.
Its existential power struggle with Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army, sworn opponent of Mr Maliki and the Americans, is increasingly distracting its attention away from "national" priorities.
All this has not gone unnoticed among US legislators and policymakers such as Democratic senator Joe Biden, who have long argued that Iraq as a conventional, unified nation state is an unattainable chimera, and that Bosnia-style, ethnically-based partition is the responsible way forward.
Mr Biden won senate approval last week for a non-binding measure calling for Iraq's division into separate Sunni, Shia and Kurdish regions.
"Attempts to partition or divide Iraq by intimidation, force or other means would produce extraordinary suffering and bloodshed," the US government warned.
But many reply that, despite the surgistas' recent successes, extraordinary suffering is what Iraq has already got - and the illusion of central control cannot be sustained much longer.
But even as the military finally gets a grip, the effectiveness and cohesion of the civilian-led, Shia-dominated central government in Baghdad slips by the day, fuelling renewed talk of partition.
US officials say the number of Iraqi civilians and American soldiers killed in September was lower than at any time since January 2006. The overall death toll has been falling for four months.
Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, the US deputy commander, said this week that al-Qaida bases and safe havens have been reduced by 60-70% since the surge began.
Other contributory factors include increased cooperation from Sunni Arab tribesmen, not merely in al-Anbar province, long held up as a model, but across central Iraq.
Up to 30,000 Sunnis have reportedly volunteered to help US and Iraqi government forces secure their neighbourhoods against jihadist depredations.
After months of bitter US complaints that Iran's Revolutionary Guard is aiding Shia militias and arming renegade Sunnis linked to al-Qaida, Tehran may now be backing off.
Lt Gen Odierno said the supply of weapons from Iran had increased dramatically between April and July, in support of a summer offensive by insurgents against coalition forces.
But after a border security deal agreed with Tehran last month by Iraq's Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, the arms flow was slowing.
The reason could be Iranian alarm over escalating internecine clashes between rival Shia factions in the south. Whatever the cause, the top US commander, General David Petraeus, says he is ready to reciprocate if the Iranians stay nice.
Sadly for the overall US strategy, these security advances are not being matched by political progress.
Mr Maliki's coalition government looks weaker than ever, unable to command a working parliamentary majority and apparently incapable of passing an oil revenue-sharing law or other "benchmark" reconciliation measures. Seventeen ministries are without a minister and much central government funding remains frozen in the ruins of a collapsed bureaucracy.
Sensing divisions in the Shia camp and reduced commitment from the Kurds, Sunni Arab and secular opposition parties have begun to threaten a no confidence vote. And US congressional criticism is mounting.
"There was just no sense of urgency on the part of the prime minister to drive the overarching goal that will help cement and solidify Iraq as a united country," said Republican senator Olympia Snowe after a visit to Baghdad.
US officials, including President Bush personally, are leaning hard on Mr Maliki. Ironically, however, their success in thwarting Democratic party attempts to impose a troop withdrawal timetable, plus the surge's recent advances, may actually have eased the immediate pressure on him.
Another unpalatable reality is that if Mr Maliki falls, neither Washington nor Iraq's squabbling factions would easily find a viable alternative.
The impotence and inertia of the Baghdad government, coupled with growing willingness among tribal chiefs and provincial and municipal-level leaders to take charge of their own security, budgets and social programmes, is encouraging talk of partition - or at least a de facto devolution of power going beyond that envisaged in Iraq's federal constitution.
Independence-minded Kurdistan, in northern Iraq, is already going its own way, whatever Iraq's figurehead president, Jalal Talabani, may have told Mr Bush at their recent White House meeting.
To illustrate the point, the Kurdish regional government recently signed five unilateral oil exploration deals with foreign companies, including Hunt Oil of Texas, an erstwhile Bush campaign supporter, to fury in both Baghdad and Washington.
In the south, Mr Maliki's key Shia backer, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, wants the nine majority Shia southern provinces to join together in what could effectively become a state within a state.
Its existential power struggle with Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army, sworn opponent of Mr Maliki and the Americans, is increasingly distracting its attention away from "national" priorities.
All this has not gone unnoticed among US legislators and policymakers such as Democratic senator Joe Biden, who have long argued that Iraq as a conventional, unified nation state is an unattainable chimera, and that Bosnia-style, ethnically-based partition is the responsible way forward.
Mr Biden won senate approval last week for a non-binding measure calling for Iraq's division into separate Sunni, Shia and Kurdish regions.
"Attempts to partition or divide Iraq by intimidation, force or other means would produce extraordinary suffering and bloodshed," the US government warned.
But many reply that, despite the surgistas' recent successes, extraordinary suffering is what Iraq has already got - and the illusion of central control cannot be sustained much longer.
Source: The Guardian (CIF)
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