BAGHDAD — Iran may seem an unlikely place to turn for guidance when it comes to putting together a democratic government, but that is exactly what most of Iraq’s political class did immediately after last month’s parliamentary elections.
The ink was hardly dry on the polling results when three of the four major political alliances rushed delegations off to Tehran. Yet none of them sent anyone to the United States Embassy here, let alone to Washington.
Nor has Washington tried to intervene. Even Ayad Allawi, the secular candidate whose Iraqiya coalition won the most seats — and renounced Iranian support in seeking a parliamentary majority — has heard nothing from the Americans.
“Maybe they don’t like my face, I don’t know,” he joked, then added more seriously, “I think they don’t want to be associated with any visit, so they wouldn’t be seen as siding with one against the other.”
The Iranians, however, have shown no such qualms, publicly urging the Shiite religious parties to bury their differences so they can use their superior numbers to choose the next prime minister. Their openness, and Washington’s reticence, is a measure of the changed political dynamic in Iraq. Even though more than 90,000 American troops remain in Iraq, no one seriously doubts they are leaving, taking a slice of America’s political influence with them.
Before the full results were announced here, President Jalal Talabani, from the Kurdistan Alliance, and Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi, from the Shiite-dominated Iraqi National Alliance, flew to Tehran on Saturday, ostensibly to attend celebrations of the Persian New Year, which had actually begun weeks earlier. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, who ran a close second to Mr. Allawi, sent a delegation from his State of Law alliance at the same time.
“Iraqiya is the only one who doesn’t flock to Iran,” said Rend al-Rahim, an Iraqiya candidate. “They think Iran is an arbiter and broker in Iraqi politics and that they need Iran to put their house in order.”
Mr. Allawi himself said he had no intention of making that pilgrimage. “I don’t think it’s wise to do so,” he said. “I don’t think it’s in the interest of Iraq, nor in the interest of Iran, to go and discuss the formation of a government.”
When Mr. Allawi, whose party was propelled by millions of Sunni Arab voters, toured neighboring Arab states during the election campaign, his Shiite opponents cried foul, accusing him of encouraging Arab meddling in Iraq’s electoral affairs. Some noted that he spent more time in Saudi Arabia than he did at campaign appearances in Iraq.
Entifadh Qanbar, a senior aide to a leading Shiite politician, Ahmad Chalabi, and a spokesman for the Iraqi National Alliance, said the official visits were simply for celebrations of the Persian New Year, or Nowruz, and were not an attempt to win Iranian backing for Iraqi political groupings.
“It’s very mutual,” he said. “Iran has influence inside Iraq and Iraq has influence inside Iran, we have the Marjiya here for instance.” The Marjiya, Shiite Islam’s highest religious authority, is located in Najaf, Iraq.
“Allawi goes on a tour of Arab countries, and they accuse the Arabs of meddling in Iraqi politics,” said Ms. Rahim of Iraqiya. “When half of the Iraqi politicians rush to Tehran, nobody comments.”
“The border with Iran is a continuous stretch of history and civilization,” Mr. Qanbar said, “while the border with Arab countries is a desert.”
But Iran and Iraq have their differences as well. While Iranians are overwhelmingly Shiite, they are Persians, while Iraq’s Shiites are mostly Arabs, and make up only 60 percent of its population.
The Shiite religious parties dominate two of Iraq’s four biggest electoral alliances. Mr. Maliki’s Dawa Party is the major component of his State of Law alliance, which won 89 seats to Iraqiya’s 92. In the Iraqi National Alliance, the largest grouping belongs to followers of the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, who has been living in Iran since 2007. Sadrists account for about 40 of the I.N.A.’s 70 seats in the next Parliament. Most of the rest belong to the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, formerly the largest Shiite party.
In the months leading up to Iraq’s March 7 election, Iranian diplomats were openly pushing for Mr. Maliki to join the I.N.A. But the Sadrists — who blame Mr. Maliki for a military crackdown that destroyed their militia’s power — blocked any agreement that would have made him their candidate for prime minister. So Mr. Maliki decided to start his own alliance.
Together, the two Shiite-dominated alliances would easily have bested Mr. Allawi’s, though they may still have needed support from Kurds or other parties to make a majority — 163 of the 325 seats in Parliament.
Some see that as evidence that Iran’s role in Iraq is weakening, or at least being limited. Brett H. McGurk, who worked in Iraq for the National Security Council during the Bush and early Obama administrations and is now at the Council on Foreign Relations, says Iran will remain influential but not decisively so.
“Iraq, ironically, is the one place in the Middle East where people are pushing back against the Iranians, and succeeding,” Mr. McGurk said. “Maliki broke away at great personal courage, and under tremendous pressure from Tehran. Now, they will try to bring Maliki and the I.N.A. back together. But at best it’s a Humpty Dumpty alliance, fragile and fractious as ever.”
Many analysts say Mr. Allawi can hope to win over enough Shiite and Kurdish supporters from the other blocs only if he gets some support from Iran.
“I don’t have any relations with Iran, basically, which is regrettable,” Mr. Allawi said.
“I don’t think there’s any opportunity for Allawi to win the support of Iran,” said Jabir Habib Jabir, an expert in Iraqi politics at Baghdad’s Mustansiriya University. “It’s been years, he cannot undo it in days.”
Within days, though, there were signs that Mr. Allawi might be trying to do so. Iraq’s deputy prime minister, Rafie al-Issawi, who is with Mr. Allawi’s Iraqiya alliance and in charge of leading his negotiations toward forming a governing coalition, met with Iran’s ambassador Wednesday.
“The formation of the next government is an internal Iraqi issue,” Mr. Issawi said afterward.
The Iranian ambassador, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, was equally circumspect. “Just as we do not accept any interference in our internal affairs, we do not allow ourselves to interfere in the affairs of others,” he said.
Nonetheless, the two officials talked for three hours. And when President Talabani returned from Iran on Wednesday, his first official visit was a private one to Mr. Allawi’s home.
By ROD NORDLAND
N.Y.T
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/world/middleeast/02iraq.html?th&emc=th
No comments:
Post a Comment